A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
That’s a rather hard proposition to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential England player.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
