A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
